Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction 2025-2030: Calculating the odds of a 500% hike

Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction 2025-2030: Calculating the odds of a 500% hike


Disclaimer: The datasets shared in the following article have been compiled from a set of online resources and do not reflect AMBCrypto’s own research on the subject

The native token of Ethereum, ETH is prepared to experience a big price increase in contrast to its primary rival, Bitcoin, in the days before the beginning of 2023. The majority of the bullish indications are contained in the well-known technical configuration known as the “cup-and-handle” pattern. It appears when the price moves lower while maintaining a common resistance level and recovers in a U-shape (cup) (neckline).


Here’s AMBCrypto’s Price Prediction for Ethereum [ETH] for 2023-24


Conventional experts see the cup and handle as a bullish setup, with seasoned analyst Tom Bulkowski noting that the pattern meets its profit target 61% of the time. The theoretical profit objective for a cup-and-handle pattern is calculated by adding the neckline level to the distance between the pattern’s neckline and lowest point.

Around the $1,280 support level, where the price of Ethereum displayed remarkable endurance, there was a tight consolidation and sideways movement. However, the breakout was almost as remarkable as ETH increased by 25% in just five days, creating a local peak of $1,594. In fact, it went on to climb even higher soon after.

The price of Ethereum may overcome this barrier and head for the psychologically significant $2,000 level, depending on the state of the market and the bullish momentum. Investors would gain 44% overall from this move, which indicates that this is where ETH’s upward potential is limited. 

Given everything, buying Ethereum must be a sound investment in the long term, right? Most experts have positive predictions for ETH. Furthermore, the bulk of long-term Ethereum price projections are upbeat.

Why are projections important?

Since Ethereum has seen phenomenal growth in recent years, it is not surprising that investors are placing significant bets on this cryptocurrency. Ethereum gained traction after the price of Bitcoin dropped in 2020, following a protracted period of stagnation in 2018 and 2019.

Interestingly, much of the altcoin market remained idle even after the halving. One of the few that picked up the momentum quickly is Ethereum. Ethereum had increased by 200% from its 2017 highs by the end of 2021.

Ethereum may experience such a spike thanks to several crucial factors. One of these is an upgrade to the Ethereum network, specifically a move to Ethereum 2.0. Another reason is the Ethereum tokenomics debate. With the switch to Ethereum 2.0, ether tokenomics will become even more deflationary. As a result, there won’t be as many tokens on the market to meet increasing demand. The outcome might increase Ethereum’s rising momentum in the future.

In this article, we’ll take a quick look at the cryptocurrency market’s recent performance, paying particular attention to market cap and volume. The most well-known analysts’ and platforms’ predictions will be summarized at the end, along with a look at the Fear & Greed Index to gauge market sentiment.

Ethereum’s price, volume, and everything in between

Ethereum, at press time, was trading at $1,650, and it was up significantly from the past week. It increased by more than 6% in the last seven days. Thanks to its high ROI, early investors have tripled their investments yearly. At press time, it held a market cap of $199 billion.

Source: ETH/USD, TradingView

Ether spot market activity has also increased, with the cryptocurrency surpassing Bitcoin as the most traded coin on Coinbase a while back. Also, while the trading volume for Ether made up 33.4% of the entire turnover recorded in the week ending on 29 July, the volume for Bitcoin came in at 32%, with SOL coming in last.

Even though it can be difficult to forecast the price of a volatile cryptocurrency, most experts concur that ETH may once again cross the $4,000 barrier in 2022. And, according to a recent forecast by Bloomberg intelligence analyst Mike McGlone, the price of Ethereum will conclude the year between $4,000 and $4,500.

Additionally, according to a report by Kaiko on 1 August, ETH’s market share of trading volume will reach 50% parity with Bitcoin’s for the first time in 2022.

According to Kaiko, ETH outpaced Bitcoin in July as a result of significant inflows into the spot and derivative markets. Most exchanges have seen this surge, which can be an indication of returning investors. Additionally, a rise in average trade size is the exact reverse of what has been seen so far in 2022’s downturn.

On 2 August, Open Interest (OI) of Deribit Ether Options priced at $5.6 billion exceeded the OI of Bitcoin valued at $4.6 billion by 32%. This was the first time in history that ETH surpassed BTC in the Options market.

Source: Glassnode

In fact, a majority of cryptocurrency influencers are bullish on Ethereum and anticipate it to reach incredible highs.

Given the anticipation around the merge, Ethereum has become the talk of the town. The second-largest crypto has beaten the king of crypto to become the most in-demand crypto. A quick division of volume by market capitalization of both cryptos will reveal Ethereum’s relative volume is in fact greater than that of Bitcoin.

While the broader Ethereum community is looking forward to the environment-friendly PoS update, a faction has emerged in favor of a fork that will retain the energy-intensive PoW model. 

The faction is mostly made up of miners who risk losing their investment in expensive mining equipment since the update would render their business model useless. Prominent Chinese miner Chandler Guo stated on Twitter last month that an ETHPoW is “coming soon”.

Binance has clarified that in the event of a fork which creates a new token, the ETH ticker will be reserved for the Ethereum PoS chain, adding that “withdrawals for the forked token will be supported”. Stablecoin projects Tether and Circle have both reiterated their exclusive support for the Ethereum PoS chain after the merge.

TradingView expressed the same opinion at the time this article was written, and their technical analysis of the Ethereum price indicated that it was a “Buy” signal for ETH.

Source: Tradingview

In fact, PwC’s Crypto-head Henri Arslanian claimed in an edition of First Mover that “Ethereum is the only show in town.” However, investors will need to witness increased demand and functioning for Ether’s price to keep climbing.

According to Mudrex’s Edul Patel,

“The Merge will complete Ethereum’s transition to PoS, making it extremely energy efficient and convenient to make payments. That will only aid Ethereum’s massive use cases, ultimately driving demand higher for the ETH token.”

Kenneth Worthington, analyst at JPMorgan Chase, has expressed his confidence in the Merge’s ability to benefit stakeholders like Coinbase. Worthington believes that Coinbase has positioned itself to capitalize on the Merge by “maximizing the value of Eth staking for its clients

Prominent venture capitalist Fred Wilson published a blog on 15 August outlining the imminent changes that will follow the Merge. Wilson explained that along with a reduced carbon footprint which will make Ethereum more environment friendly, the Merge will alter the supply and demand balance of ether. This change was demonstrated by Bankless in their blogpost where they projected a structural inflow of $0.3 million per day, in contrast to the current structural outflow of $18 million per day. 

According to investor and creator of the cryptocurrency research and media organization Token Metrics Ian Balina, “I think Ethereum can go to $8,000.”

ETH Whale Activity

Data from blockchain analytics firm Santiment shows ETH supply held by the top addresses on crypto exchanges has been on the rise since early June. On the other hand, ETH supply held by the top non-exchange addresses i.e. ETH held in hardware wallets, digital wallets etc. has been declining since early June. But why June? Because it was around that time that a tentative timeline for the Merge was disclosed to the community.

Santiment had tweeted last week that over the past 3 months, whales had beefed up their exchange holdings by 78%  

So what does this mean? It means that Ethereum whales are moving their ETH onto exchanges. Top ETH hodlers are taking their supply out of cold storage and moving it to exchanges, most likely to facilitate a quick transaction if needed.

In the run up to the merge, a number of exchanges like Coinbase and Binance announced that they will be suspending all ETH and ERC-20 token deposits and withdrawals, in order to ensure a seamless transition.

It is possible that the whales moved their holdings onto exchanges to either preemptively dump their holdings in anticipation of a price slump after the Merge. The other possibility is them waiting till well after the Merge to act on ETH’s price action.

Let’s now look at what well-known platforms and analysts have to say about where they believe Ethereum will be in 2025 and 2030.

Ethereum Price Prediction 2025

According to Changelly, the least expected price of ETH in 2025 is $7,336.62, while the maximum possible price is $8,984.84. The trading expense will be around $7,606.30.

CoinDCX also predicts ETH could have a relatively successful year in 2025 because there may not be much of an adverse impact on the asset. There is little doubt that the bulls could be well-positioned and retain a significant upturn throughout the year. The asset is anticipated to reach $11,317 by the end of the first half of 2025, notwithstanding possible brief pullbacks.

However, you have to remember that the year is 2025, and a lot of these projections are based on Ethereum 2.0 launching and performing successfully. And by that, it means Ethereum has to solve its high-cost gas fees issues as well. Also, global regulatory and legislative frameworks have not yet consistently backed cryptocurrencies. 

However, even though newer and more environmentally friendly technologies have been developed, analysts frequently claim that Ethereum’s “first mover advantage” has positioned it for long-term success, despite new competition. The price predictions seem conceivable because, in addition to its projected update, Ethereum is anticipated to be used more frequently than ever before in the development of DApps.

Ethereum Price Prediction 2030

Changelly also argued that the price of ETH in 2030 has been estimated by cryptocurrency specialists after years of price monitoring. It will be traded for a minimum of $48,357.62 and a maximum of $57,877.63. So, on average, you can anticipate that in 2030, the price of ETH will be roughly $49,740.33.

Long-term Ethereum price estimates can be a useful tool for analyzing the market and learning how key platforms anticipate that future developments like the Ethereum 2.0 upgrade will affect pricing.

Crypto-Rating, for instance, predicts that by 2030, Ethereum’s value will likely exceed $100,000.

Both Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead and deVEre Group founder Nigel Green also predict that during the next ten years, the price of ETH will hit $100,000.

Sounds like too much? Well, the functional capabilities of the network, such as interoperability, security, and transaction speed, will radically change as a result of Ethereum 2.0. Should these and other related reforms be successfully implemented, opinion on ETH will change from being slightly favorable to strongly bullish. This will provide Ethereum the chance to entirely rewrite the rules of the cryptocurrency game.

Conclusion

While some of these investors have started investing in rival tokens in order to profit, others are doing it out of precaution in order to hedge their portfolios. This has been corroborated by the volatility witnessed in metrics like daily active users and price action of so-called Ethereum killers like Avalanche, Solana, Cardano etc. in the run up to the merge event which is less than a month away.

There is broad hope that the first smart contract blockchain will survive this period of trials, despite Ethereum’s rivalries and other factors contributing to its continuous instability.

As far as the Merge is concerned, it is being hailed as a major success story by the Ethereum community. Buterin cited a research study by an Ethereum researcher, Justin Drake, that suggests that the “merge will reduce worldwide electricity consumption by 0.2%.”

It also reduces the time to mine one block of ETH from 13 seconds to 12 seconds. The Merge marks 55% completion of Ethereum’s journey toward greater scalability and sustainability. 

The likelihood that Ether will experience a price surge of 50% in the future is increased by its superior interim fundamentals to those of Bitcoin. To begin with, Ether’s annual supply rate plummeted in October, in part because of a fee-burning mechanism known as EIP-1559 that takes a certain amount of ETH out of perpetual circulation anytime an on-chain transaction takes place.

Concerns about censorship on the Ethereum ecosystem have also emerged post the Merge. Around half of the Ethereum blocks are Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC)-compliant as MEV-Boost got implemented. As Ethereum has upgraded to a PoS consensus, MEV-Boost has been enabled to a more representative distribution of block proposers, rather than a small group of miners under PoW. This development raises a concern about censorship under the force of OFAC.  

It is interesting to note that while many eagerly waited for Ethereum’s Merge and beefed up their holdings in anticipation of a price surge, there was a group of investors who weren’t confident in the Merge’s successful rollout. These investors were betting on a glitch in the rollout process, hoping that the update runs into trouble. While some of these investors have started investing in rival tokens in order to profit, others are doing it out of precaution in order to hedge their portfolios. This was corroborated by the volatility witnessed in metrics like daily active users and price action of so-called Ethereum killers like Avalanche, Solana, Cardano etc. in the run up to the Merge.

The majority of Ethereum price forecasts indicate that ETH can anticipate tremendous growth over the ensuing years.

As per Santiment, Ethereum’s active addresses have sunk to 4-month lows with weak hands continuing to drop post-Merge, and disinterest at a high as prices have stagnated. 17 October was the first day that there were less than 400,000 addresses on the network since 26 June.

What about the flippening then? Is it possible that the altcoin might pass Bitcoin on the charts in the future? Well, that is possible. In fact, according to BlockchainCenter, ETH has already surpassed BTC on a few key metrics.

Consider Transaction Counts and Total Transaction Fees, for instance. On both counts, ETH is ahead of BTC.

Source: BlockchainCenter

On the contrary, the traditional definition of a ‘flippening’ relates to the market cap of cryptos flipping. As far as the same is concerned, ETH is 48.2% off BTC’s market cap.

Similarly, Google Search Interest for ETH was over 76% off the figures for BTC’s own figures.

Source: BlockchainCenter

However, remember that a lot can change over these years, especially in a highly volatile market like cryptocurrency. Leading analysts’ projections vary greatly, but even the most conservative ones might result in respectable profits for anyone choosing to invest in Ethereum.





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Bitcoin Price Correlated With Financial Markets – Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Price Correlated With Financial Markets – Bitcoin Magazine


This is an editorial opinion by Mike Ermolaev, head of public relations and content at Kikimora Labs.

Setting The Context: Global Economy Fundamentals

The economy is still recovering from the COVID-19 outbreak as new problems arise. We are now in a time of rampant inflation with central banks trying to remedy that by raising interest rates.

The US CPI data (consumer price index), released on October 13, came in higher than expected (8.2% year-over-year), negatively impacting the bitcoin price. But inflation is not the only issue, the global economy is also struggling with the energy crisis, affecting Europe more than the US, due to its strong dependency on Russian natural gas and raw material.





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Research: A fresh take on Bitcoin mining

Research: A fresh take on Bitcoin mining


Bitcoin mining and its energy consumption have recently been the subject of many heated debates. As governments and institutions around the world keep introducing new measures to combat pollution and climate change, Bitcoin's energy-guzzling network sticks out like a sore thumb.

Various data aggregators and trackers work around the clock to provide the market with the exact amount of energy the network consumes. Many offer interesting comparisons with the goal to illustrate just how much power Bitcoin requires.

For example, some data shows that the amount of electricity consumed by the Bitcoin network in a single year could power the entire University of Cambridge for 758 years. The networks' one-year energy consumption could also power all the tea kettles used to boil water in the UK for 23 years. Bitcoin also uses more power than all of the fridges and TVs, and almost twice as much power as all of the lightning in the entire US

While popular, this narrative doesn't paint a clear picture and intentionally obscures the broader context.

Data analyzed by CryptoSlate shows that Bitcoin's share in the global consumption of energy is minuscule. According to the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, Bitcoin's share in the global consumption of electricity is just 0.45%. This estimate might be slightly off today as it's based on global energy statistics from 2018, but nonetheless puts Bitcoin's consumption into a broader context.

bitcoin mining energy consumption
Bitcoin's share in the global consumption of energy (Source: The Cambridge Electricity Consumption Index)

Comparing the energy consumption of the Bitcoin network to gold further illustrates this point. Estimates from 2019 showed that gold mining consumes around 131 TWh of energy per year. Buy the effects gold mining has on the environment don't stop with its consumption of electricity. Assessing an industry's impact on the environment requires looking at the amount of pollution it causes — ie the carbon dioxide it releases into the atmosphere, the land it deforests, the water sources it contaminates, etc.

bitcoin mining energy gold
The energy consumption of gold mining compared to Bitcoin mining (Source: The Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index)

And while experts are still debating the sustainability of gold mining, the direct effect it has on the environment is visibly higher than Bitcoin mining.

However, governments and institutions around the world aren't racing to instate strict bans on gold mining.

Unlike gold and other energy-guzzling industries, Bitcoin mining is extremely mobile. Without ties to any particular location, miners move wherever there is cheap and abundant power, setting up new facilities quickly and efficiently all around the world.

The mobility of Bitcoin miners was best seen in the summer of 2021 when a state-wide ban on crypto-related activities in China left thousands of mining operations seeking alternative locations. At the time, miners located in China's hydropower-rich provinces accounted for almost three-quarters of the Bitcoin hash rate.

When faced with an imminent ban in China, miners quickly regrouped and began relocating — some to neighboring countries like Kazakhstan, and others overseas to the US

Those who moved their operations to the US benefited from the welcoming attitude of states like Texas and Wyoming. Bitcoin miners, besides their mobility, also have a unique advantage when it comes to energy consumption — they don't compete with other industries for the same energy resources.

Bitcoin mining farms can tap into energy assets at the production point rather than getting their electricity through the regular power grid. This means that miners are able to soak up surplus energy that would have otherwise been lost or wasted — both reducing its impact on the environment and increasing its profitability.

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), around 5% of all the electricity transmitted and distributed through power grids between 2016 and 2020 was lost. These losses accounted for around 206 TWh of electricity, which is enough to power the entire Bitcoin network 2.1 times. The natural gas lost through flaring and venting on oil fields could create 688 TWh of electricity, enough to power the entire Bitcoin network 6.9 times.

bitcoin mining network
Comparing energy lost from various sources to the Bitcoin network consumption (Source: The Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index)

Some Bitcoin miners have seen the potential in these energy losses. Bitcoin miners in Texas have been turning off their ASICs to return power to the grid when demand is high and guzzling up excess energy when demand is low.

Several companies are also working on utilizing the natural gas found in oil fields. They use the gas that would have otherwise been flared or vented into the atmosphere to power generators that produce electricity used by Bitcoin mining machines. Killing two birds with one stone, this approach reduces the impact natural gas has on the environment and makes it profitable.

Another hugely important but often overlooked point when discussing Bitcoin's sustainability is its effect on the economy.

Data centers around the world consume twice as much electricity as the Bitcoin network, but their economic value is so high any discussion about sustainability is out of the question. Air conditioners guzzle up almost 220 TWh of energy every year and are rarely the target of aggressive environmental marketing.

bitcoin mining energy consumption comparison
Comparing Bitcoin's energy consumption to other large residential and industrial consumers (Source: The Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index)

Bitcoin's increasing energy consumption can bring about economic prosperity that outweighs any effects it might have on the environment.

Countries with high energy usage universally rank high on the GDP per capita scale, showing that increased consumption correlates with increased living standards. Qatar, the UAE, the US, Switzerland, Japan, and Macao rank high when it comes to GDP and all consume high amounts of electricity per capita.

GDP per capita
Graph showing the energy use per person compared to GDP per capita (Source: OurWorldInData.com)

Looking at Bitcoin mining through the eyes of economic prosperity and GDP shows that it's not the environmental disaster many make it to be. While we can't be certain that increased energy consumption effectively leads to economic abundance, we know for sure that the correlation is too high to ignore.

Growing energy consumption caused by an influx of Bitcoin miners would lead to a growth in a highly skilled workforce, bring a notable increase in income, and improve surrounding infrastructure. All while soaking up excess energy, renewable energy, and energy that would have otherwise been wasted.



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LMAX Group Sees Record Growth in Gross Revenue and Profit in 2021

LMAX Group Sees Record Growth in Gross Revenue and Profit in 2021


LMAX Group, the operator of multiple institutional execution venues for forex and cryptocurrency trading, saw record performance during its fiscal year that ended on 31 December 2021.

The UK-headquartered company's gross profit jumped 68% to US$106 million in 2021, LMAX Group announced on Tuesday.

The Group's gross revenue also climbed 80% higher during the period compared to 2020, the company said.

Additionally, the total trading volume of the group shot up 20% year-over-year to US$5.4 trillion in 2020.

Furthermore, LMAX Group reported a 103% growth in its statutory earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBIDTA) as well as an EBITDA margin increase of 58%.

The statutory EBIDTA touched US$62 million, LMAX Group said.

Growth Factors

The company explained that the growth in its institutional market share across both the forex and cryptocurrency markets “despite volatility and downward pressure on volumes” contributed to the revenue jump.

David Mercer, the Chief Executive Officer of LMAX Group, attributed the “strong performance” to “years of investment in our market-leading proprietary technology.”

Mercer added that LMAX Group's efforts to diversify its product offering and geographic reach contributed to the record financial results.

“2021 was a milestone year for LMAX Group as we successfully navigated through challenging global macroeconomic conditions to achieve record volumes, revenues, and EBITDA,” he added.

The LMAX Group includes the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA)-regulated LMAX Exchange, which is an institutional forex exchange; and LMAX Global, which is the brokerage arm regulated by the FCA and the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission.

In addition, it includes LMAX Digital, an institutional spot cryptocurrency exchange regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission.

Focus on LMAX Digital

According to LMAX Group, LMAX Digital volumes reached over $500 billion during its fiscal year 2021.

“Over the course of the year, LMAX Digital maintained its position as the primary price discovery venue in the market and continued to drive institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies, delivering over $500 billion in volumes, up 340% year-on-year,” LMAX Group explained.

A more recent signal of LMAX Digital's growth is its institutional spot cryptocurrency peak volumes reported in May following the crypto market rebound at the time.

The volumes reached $2.10 billion and $3.25 billion on two consecutive days during the month.

Meanwhile, LMAX Group in March partnered with the SIX Swiss Exchange, a major Swiss stock exchange, to launch cash-settled and centrally cleared crypto-asset futures.

LMAX Group, the operator of multiple institutional execution venues for forex and cryptocurrency trading, saw record performance during its fiscal year that ended on 31 December 2021.

The UK-headquartered company's gross profit jumped 68% to US$106 million in 2021, LMAX Group announced on Tuesday.

The Group's gross revenue also climbed 80% higher during the period compared to 2020, the company said.

Additionally, the total trading volume of the group shot up 20% year-over-year to US$5.4 trillion in 2020.

Furthermore, LMAX Group reported a 103% growth in its statutory earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBIDTA) as well as an EBITDA margin increase of 58%.

The statutory EBIDTA touched US$62 million, LMAX Group said.

Growth Factors

The company explained that the growth in its institutional market share across both the forex and cryptocurrency markets “despite volatility and downward pressure on volumes” contributed to the revenue jump.

David Mercer, the Chief Executive Officer of LMAX Group, attributed the “strong performance” to “years of investment in our market-leading proprietary technology.”

Mercer added that LMAX Group's efforts to diversify its product offering and geographic reach contributed to the record financial results.

“2021 was a milestone year for LMAX Group as we successfully navigated through challenging global macroeconomic conditions to achieve record volumes, revenues, and EBITDA,” he added.

The LMAX Group includes the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA)-regulated LMAX Exchange, which is an institutional forex exchange; and LMAX Global, which is the brokerage arm regulated by the FCA and the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission.

In addition, it includes LMAX Digital, an institutional spot cryptocurrency exchange regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission.

Focus on LMAX Digital

According to LMAX Group, LMAX Digital volumes reached over $500 billion during its fiscal year 2021.

“Over the course of the year, LMAX Digital maintained its position as the primary price discovery venue in the market and continued to drive institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies, delivering over $500 billion in volumes, up 340% year-on-year,” LMAX Group explained.

A more recent signal of LMAX Digital's growth is its institutional spot cryptocurrency peak volumes reported in May following the crypto market rebound at the time.

The volumes reached $2.10 billion and $3.25 billion on two consecutive days during the month.

Meanwhile, LMAX Group in March partnered with the SIX Swiss Exchange, a major Swiss stock exchange, to launch cash-settled and centrally cleared crypto-asset futures.



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Terra (LUNA) Price Prediction 2025-2030: Here’s what’s next for LUNA holders

Terra (LUNA) Price Prediction 2025-2030: Here’s what’s next for LUNA holders


Disclaimer: The datasets shared in the following article have been compiled from a set of online resources and do not reflect AMBCrypto’s own research on the subject. 

Terraform Labs developed the Terra USD stablecoin and the Luna coin, both of which debuted in 2019. The TerraUSD (UST) stablecoin was linked to LUNC to ensure price stability. 


Here’s AMBCrypto’s Price Prediction for LUNA for 2023-24


Those in the industry are well aware of the collapse of these twin coins in May 2022, which led to the cryptocurrency crash in the second quarter of 2022.

The journey of this pair of coins, UST and LUNC, is fraught with ups and downs. Terraform Labs was founded in 2018 in Seoul by South Korean techpreneurs Do Kwon and Daniel Shin. The following year, the Terra blockchain and the UST stablecoin, both of which are linked to the Luna token, were launched.

The Terra system was created to provide the advantages of price stability, increased currency acceptance, decentralized anonymity, and quick, low-cost payments. It is one of the most well-known stablecoin projects.One of the best-known stablecoin projects, it is also the most controversial one. 

Stablecoins, such as UST, was created to protect investors from the extreme price volatility of popular cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

As fiat currency is pegged to reserves such as gold, a stablecoin is pegged to either a fiat currency (e.g. USD) or a supporting cryptocurrency. In this case, TerraUSD was pegged to Luna. But herein lies the conflict. A cryptocurrency isn’t equivalent to gold reserves. As Luna prices got destabilized, it had an impact on UST prices too, and the entire stablecoin system collapsed in the second quarter of 2022.

The stablecoin project was aimed at complementing the price stability and wide adoption of fiat currencies with the decentralized model of cryptocurrency.

Even those who are only vaguely familiar with the cryptocurrency industry know of the apocalyptic collapse of LUNA and UST in May 2022. This collapse was crucial in instigating the cryptocurrency crisis thereafter. 

LUNA was one of the market’s top performers once, with the altcoin once among the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market value towards the end of 2021.

A Bloomberg report from May 2022 sheds light on the further developments that transpired. It was in early May 2022 that the Terra system collapsed as large investors began selling their tokens. The move caused a huge drop in the price of the coins. While the price of UST fell to $0.10, LUNA’s price fell to almost zilch.

The cryptocurrency market lost around $45 billion within a week in the ensuing bloodbath, leading to a global crash in the market. The leadership of the Terra system hoped to buy Bitcoin reserves to buy more UST and LUNA coins so that their prices can be stabilized, but the plan didn’t work.

Thousands of investors across the globe lost significant amounts due to the mishap. In the immediate aftermath, the Korean National Tax Service imposed $78.4 million in corporate and income tax on Do Kwon and Terraform Labs after a Terra investor filed a police complaint against the co-founder.   

In fact, an affected investor even broke into Kwon’s house in South Korea. His wife then sought security from the police. 

In July 2022, News1 Korea reported that South Korean prosecutors raided 15 firms, including seven cryptocurrency exchanges in relation to the investigation around the Terraform collapse. More than 100 people who filed complaints with the prosecutors’ office reportedly had losses totaling roughly $8 million.

Only a few days back, Financial Times reported that South Korean prosecutors have reportedly asked Interpol to issue a Red Notice against Kwon. Kwon, however, tweeted that he is not on the run from any interested government agency. He added that the company is in full cooperation and it doesn’t have anything to hide.  

Many from the industry had been warning the cryptocurrency community about the upcoming doom. Kevin Zhou, CEO of Galois Capital, was one such individual. He said that the result was inevitable as the “mechanism was flawed, and it didn’t play out as expected” However, most people didn’t pay any heed. 

On May 25, Bloomberg reported that a new version of LUNA was launched following a hard fork, with the new LUNA coin no longer associated with the devalued UST coin. The older currency is called Luna Classic (LUNC) and the newer one is called Luna 2.0 (LUNA). Though the older cryptocurrency has not been entirely replaced, its community might slowly dissolve as more and more users move to LUNA 2.0.  

The new initiative included an airdrop of new LUNA tokens to those who held Luna Classic (LUNC) and UST tokens and suffered. A significant portion of the minted currency is to be reserved for development and mining operations. Currently, there is a supply of 1 billion LUNA tokens.

Recently, the 1.2% tax burn proposal, dubbed proposal #4661, passed the governance vote, as confirmed in a tweet by proposal author Edward Kim. The move was confirmed by Terra Rebels who tweeted that out of 96% cast votes, 99% favored the 1.2% tax burns.

The collapse of the twin coins proved to be a harbinger of increased government regulations, if not downright opposition, in the cryptocurrency industry. The anonymous model of the industry, much touted to be the foundation of the decentralized cryptocurrency market, was once embraced by all. However, the moment people lost their investments, they rushed to government authorities for redressal.  

This is when government financial authorities found the opportunity to push for implementing rules and regulations in the crypto industry to tackle price volatility, money laundering etc. 

The entry of corporate institutions with government oversight into the industry had already set the tone for what was to come. But this collapse furthered this trend. Now, cryptocurrency entities, whether large or small, will likely be overseen by central banks across the globe. In such scenarios, it will be critical to observe how the industry manages to uphold its anonymous and decentralized nature.   

A recent Bloomberg report says that upcoming legislation would ban algorithmic stablecoins such as TerraUSD the collapse of which led to a global crypto crash. The said bill is currently being drafted in the U.S. House. The bill would make it illegal to develop or issue new “endogenously collateralized stablecoins.” 

In a recent interview, Kwon said that his confidence at that time was justified as the market success of his Terra ecosystem was inching close to $100 billion, but his faith now “seems super irrational.” He admitted the possibility of a mole being there in the organization, but added, “I, and I alone, am responsible for any weaknesses that could have been presented for a short seller to start to take profit.”

Why these projections matter

The future of LUNA is a very critical matter for the entire cryptocurrency industry. Launched as a part of the regeneration strategy, its performance so far has not exactly been celebratory.

Transactions on the Terra 2.0 blockchain are validated through the proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism. The network has 130 validators working at a given point of time. As a PoS platform, the power of the validator is linked to the number of tokens staked.

How LUNA trades will determine the course of not only this particular cryptocurrency but a number of stablecoins in the market. If it succeeds in gaining the trust of investors, the venture will go a long way in furthering the cause of the asset class of stablecoins.  

In this article, we will lay down the key performance metrics of LUNA such as its price and market capitalization. We will then summarize what the most prominent crypto-influencers and analysts have to say about LUNA’s performance, along with its Fear & Greed Index. We will also briefly talk about whether you should invest in stablecoin or not.

LUNA’s price, volume, and everything in between

Beginning its journey at around $19 on 28 May 2022, LUNA quickly dropped below $5 the next day. By the end of May 2022, its value was just above $11, but it soon spiralled south as June began.

Over the next few months, the value of LUNA kept oscillating between $1.7 and $2.5. At press time, it was trading at $2.62. 

Source: LUNA/USDT, TradingView

Similarly, its market capitalization isn’t as high as it once was. Back in June 2022, its market cap was over $300 million, but it kept oscillating between below $210 and $300 during much of July. At press time, it had climbed back to $424 million. 

The crisis that unfolded following the collapse of the twin coins impacted the course of the entire market. LUNA has particularly been vulnerable to volatile market conditions. The Russia-Ukraine crisis and increasing crypto-regulations across the globe have also curtailed the movement of the market.  

LUNA’s 2025 Predictions

Before reading further, readers should understand that the market prediction of different cryptocurrency analysts can widely vary. And, a good number of times, these predictions prove wrong. Different analysts choose different sets of parameters to arrive at their forecasts. Also, nobody can foresee unpredictable socio-political events that ultimately end up affecting the market.

Let us now have a look at what different analysts have to say about the future of LUNA in 2025.

A Changelly blog post claimed that experts, after analyzing the previous performance of Terra, have predicted that the price of LUNA will oscillate between $7.26 and $8.62. Its average trading cost during the said year will be around $7.46, with a potential ROI of 384%, they added.

Telegaon too is very bullish in its assessment of the future of LUNA, with its maximum and minimum prices in 2025 being $52.39 and $69.18. It predicts its average price in the said year to be $61.72.

LUNA’s 2030 Predictions

The aforementioned Changelly blog post stated that the maximum and minimum prices of LUNA in 2030 will be $48.54 and $57.68. The average price of LUNA in the said year will be $50.24, with a potential ROI of 3,140%.

Disclaimer

Now, the aforementioned are more recent predictions. Before the events of the last few months, analysts were way more optimistic about the fortunes of LUNA.

Consider Finder’s panel of experts, for instance. In fact, they forecasted a price of $390 by 2025 and $997 by 2030.

“The likes of Digital Capital Management’s Ben Ritchie claimed, The LUNA token will continue to gain traction as long as there are no clear regulations in stablecoins. We believe that LUNA and UST will have an advantage and be adopted as a major stablecoin across the crypto space. LUNA is burnt to mint a UST, so if the adoption of UST grows, the LUNA will benefit greatly. Having Bitcoin as a reserve asset is a great decision by the Terra governance.”

There were contrary opinions too. According to Dimitrios Salampasis,

“Algorithmic stablecoins are considered as being inherently fragile and are not stable at all. In my opinion, LUNA will be existing in a state of perpetual vulnerability.”

That’s not all. In fact, at one point of time, there was also talk of Terra emerging as the most staked asset.

Source: Finder

Fear & Greed Index 

Source: CFGI

Conclusion

If you are considering investing in LUNA, you should understand that it has entered the market following a significant crisis. It is still not listed on a lot of exchanges due to market fear.

We will also have to see how the community of LUNA developers and investors acts in the next few weeks. If they burn enough tokens so as to drive up its price, it can prove to be beneficial for its future. A sustained effort on the part of the cryptocurrency industry, in particular the LUNA community, can go a long way in restoring the trust of investors in the market.  

In an interview with Laura Shin on the “Unchained” podcast, Kwon said that he moved to Singapore from South Korea before the collapse of the Terra ecosystem. So, it should not be assumed that he ran away to escape the authorities. He denied claims that he is on the run from law enforcement. 

Recent news has now emerged that Kwon is also facing a class-action lawsuit filed on behalf of more than 350 international investors in a Singaporean court. They claim to have lost about $57 million in the collapse of the algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD (UST) and its ecosystem

Well, last month, the New York Times interviewed Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin who claimed that the Terra Luna team attempted to manipulate the market in order to prop up the value of the native cryptocurrency. He also recalled that plenty of “smart people” were saying that Terra was “fundamentally bad.”

We must again reiterate that market forecasts aren’t set in stone and can go wildly wrong, particularly in a market as volatile as that of cryptocurrency. Investors should therefore take due caution before investing in LUNA.

In an interview with Laura Shin on the “Unchained” podcast on 29 October, Kwon claimed that he migrated from South Korea to Singapore before the demise of the Terra environment. He also refuted reports that he is eluding law authorities.

Kwon said, “Whatever issues existed in Terra’s design, its weakness [in responding] to the cruelty of the markets, it’s my responsibility and my responsibility alone.”





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